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IMF revises growth prospects for world economies

07-08-2010 15:29 BJT

HONG KONG, July 8 (Xinhua) -- The International Monetary Fund ( IMF) published on Thursday an update of its World Economic Outlook report, revising GDP growth prospects for 2010 and 2011 in both advanced and emerging economies.

In the report, the IMF upgrades the world's GDP growth forecast for 2010 to 4.6 percent from an April projection of 4.2 percent, while the forecast for 2011 is unchanged at 4.3 percent.

The revised projection was "reflecting stronger activity during the first half of the year," said the IMF.

The world economy expanded at an annualized rate of over 5 percent during the first quarter of 2010, which is "better than expected in the April report" mostly due to robust growth in Asia.

The Washington-based organization said economic activity in Asia has been sustained by continued buoyancy in exports and strong private domestic demand and against this background, GDP growth forecasts for this region have been revised upward for 2010, from about 7 percent in the April projection to about 7.5 percent.

For 2011, Asia's GDP growth is expected to settle to a more moderate but also more sustainable rate of about 6.75 percent, the IMF said.

Both of the two economic powerhouses for Asia, China and India, are estimated to register higher growth in 2010, with China's GDP growth forecast for 2010 raised to 10.5 percent and India's to 9.4 percent, the IMF said.

With the revised figures, China still ranks first in terms of 2010 GDP growth among all economies listed in the report, followed by India.

Meanwhile, growth rate for China in 2011 was put at 9.6 percent, down 0.3 percentage point from IMF's previous forecast and that of India's stayed the same at 8.4 percent.

"Given the strong rebound in exports and resilient domestic demand so far this year, the Chinese economy is now forecast to grow by 10.5 percent in 2010, before slowing to about 9.6 percent in 2011, when further measures are taken to slow credit growth and maintain financial stability," the IMF said.

The IMF asserted that even in case of external demand shocks, the large domestic bases in some of the Asian economies (China, India, Indonesia) could still provide a cushion to growth.

From a global perspective, the economic recovery will continue despite more financial turbulence and inflation will remain subdued worldwide, the IMF said.

However, it warned the downside risks to global growth are much greater.

"Against this uncertain backdrop, the overarching policy challenge is to restore financial market confidence without choking the recovery," it said.

Editor:Xiong Qu |Source: Xinhua

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