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China's fast growth to last decades

07-30-2010 15:43 BJT

China's economy should stay on its rapid growth path over the next two or three decades as long as the pace of growth stays at a steady 8 percent a year, former central bank adviser Fan Gang was quoted as saying Wednesday.

"China's economy is likely to continue growing rapidly over the next 20 to 30 years if the pace of growth stays at 8 percent and with 8 million of new jogs every year," the Security Times cited Fan Gang, director of China's National Economic Research Institute.

The country's GDP grew by 11.1 percent in the first half of the year, while the figure for the second quarter of this year was 10.3 percent.

China has maintained rapid economic growth of over 8 percent for 10 years, starting with the 8.4 percent in 2000. The high was 14 percent in 2007, and China reached a surprising 9 percent amid the global financial crisis in 2008, according to data from the NBS.

Fan attributed the future high economic growth to high residents' saving, continued foreign investment, relatively low labor costs, and scientific and technical innovations.

"I think China will maintain economic growth between 8 and 9 percent for the next decade," said HSBC's analyst Sun Junwei. "The country's future economic growth will be driven by massive domestic consumptions and urbanization."

But Sun warned that the long-time rapid growth will bring with it problems, including the waste of natural resources and environmental degra-dation, signs of which have been apparent for years.

"China should maintain a continuous economic development and improve its social security system in order to spur domestic spending," said Sun.

Fan also estimated that China won't reach the so-called Lewis turning point, where developing countries' wages begin to rise quickly when surplus labor supply from the countryside tapers off, for the next 10 to 15 years. Workers from rural areas still account for 30 percent of the labor market and China's labor cost will continue to be relatively low compared to other countries, he said.

By Li Woke

Editor:Xiong Qu |Source: Global Times

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