China's economic growth in the next decade is likely to fall to 7 percent from the current rapid pace, Deutsche Bank was quoted as saying Thursday.
"Reasons for slowing down the economy in the next 10 years include decreasing export volumes, slowing down in property demand and urbanization," said Ma Jun, Chief Economist with the Deutsche Bank.
The Chinese government has set the target of 8 percent GDP growth in order to maintain economic and social stability. The country has maintained rapid economic growth of over 8 percent for 10 years, starting with the 8.4 percent in 2000. The high was 14 percent in 2007, and China reached a surprising 9 percent amid the global financial crisis in 2008, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.
"In 2015, the large portion of aging people and the population structure change affected by the One-child Policy will be an impediment to economic development," Life Weekly magazine quoted Chris Sturdy, Asia-Pacific chairman with the Bank of New York Mellon Corporation. "By then, China's economic growth might drop to 5-6 percent."
But former central bank adviser Fan Gang expressed a different view. "China's economy is likely to continue growing rapidly over the next 20 to 30 years if the pace of growth stays at 8 percent and with 8 million new jobs every year."
Fan attributed the future high economic growth to high residents' saving, continued foreign investment, relatively low labor costs, and scientific and technical innovations.
"I think China will maintain economic growth between 8 and 9 percent for the next decade," said HSBC's analyst Sun Junwei. "The country's future economic growth will be driven by massive domestic consumption and urbanization."
But Sun warned that the long-term rapid growth will bring with it problems, including the waste of natural resources and environmental degradation. "Resources limitation and environmental pollution could cause large economic cost for the country," said Sturdy with the Bank of New York Mellon.