- CNTV English - CCTV News

Homepage > News > Biz >

Interview: Standard Chartered chief economist positive about China's economic development

11-05-2012 10:10 BJT

by Zhang Yuenan

LONDON, Nov. 5 (Xinhua) -- Standard Chartered chief economist Gerard Lyons says the trend in China's economy is up, and he's generally positive about China's development in the coming years.

"But there could be setbacks or cycles along the way," Lyons told Xinhua in a recent interview.

The outlook for any economy depends on the interaction between the fundamentals, policy and confidence, as Lyons recently wrote in an article for Financial Times.

"Fundamentals of China are good; confidence is resilient; and China is fortunate to have plenty of room for policy maneuvers," he told Xinhua.

Because China's economic growth has slowed lately, Lyons expected the weakness to continue through to the end of this year with more policy stimulus to come.

"The current slowdown is mainly caused by shrinking exports due to weak situations in the outside world. But the biggest potential setback would come from a slowdown in investment," he said.

Investment takes up about 48 percent of China's GDP now, which is much higher than the world average of 22 to 24 percent as a recent World Bank report showed.

"If investment declines by one tenth, it will knock 4.8 percent off China's GDP," Lyons added.

He highly valued China's 12th Five-Year Plan, which in his view "gave a clear and sensible medium-term strategy to rebalance the economy away from investment to consumption."

"To get private consumption higher, China needs to help people have jobs, raise wages and build social welfare nets, which would discourage them from saving too much," Lyons said.

He underlined that economic rebalance was very difficult to achieve though quite easy to say, expecting China to spend 10 to 15 years to realize this goal.

"The good thing for China is that it has an ample room for policy maneuvers, in terms of interest rate, pumping money in, bank lending, as well as fiscal policies, which could help prevent a 'sharp' slowdown in the economy, although they may not be able to prevent a slowdown," Lyons said.

"Gradualism is another advantage for China," he said. "China has always tried to avoid doing things too much or too quickly when it comes to deregulating. Recent lessons showed that it also needs to be more gradual when boosting the economy."

"Actually China has already slowed down a bit in terms of policy boost as it seemed to have lagged behind expectations for more stimulus in the past several months," Lyons said.


Editor:James |Source: Xinhua

Hot Videos view more

The celebrations are still continuing as the victorious coach, Joachim Loew, has been honored for his achievement in his hometown of Freiburg.
Germany coach Loew honored in hometown of Freiburg

Chinese men´s national team continued its preparations for next year´s Asian Cup, as they managed a one-all draw against visitors Jordan during a football friendly in Harbin, the capital city of Northeast China´s Heilongjiang Province.
China held to 1-1 draw by Jordan

The defending world champs came into the contest with a perfect 6-and-oh record, but they would be in for a tough first half before opening things up in the second.
USA beat Slovenia 119-76 in quarter-finals

Hot Stories more

UK authorities believe killer of James Foley is a British national

Across the UK the hunt is on for James Foley’s killer, who authorities believe is a British national. As Richard Bestic reports from London, Prime Minister David Cameron cut short his summer break to lead his government’s response.

Israeli war jets renews Gaza strike as truce talks stalled

Three Palestinians were killed and 40 others wounded in the intensive Israeli war jets´ airstrikes on the Gaza city on Tuesday night, shortly before an end of a 24-hour ceasefire in the Gaza Strip,

Missouri police arrest dozens after violent night

As the protests in the town of Ferguson, Missouri turned violent with police facing ´heavy gunfire´ from some ´criminal elements´, cops fired tear gas, stun grenades and arrested 31 demonstrators on Monday night.

Picture in news more

More Video News

Choose TV Program