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JP Morgan: China Q1 GDP may stay low

04-10-2012 10:38 BJT

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It's a big week for economic indicators here in China, starting with inflation today and culminating with first quarter GDP figures on Friday. Analysts say Q1 GDP growth may come in at an 11-month low, but gradually recover over the second half of the year. We spoke with Jing Ulrich, JP Morgan China's Managing Director and Chairman of Global Markets. She expects policies in the second half to support domestic consumption, and reduce China’s dependence on exports for growth.

Jing Ulrich said, "We think first quarter GDP will come in between 8.2% and 8.4%, compared to first quarter 2011. This is going to be the lowest growth rate in eleven quarters in China. The annual GDP will be exceeding 7.5%. Our forecast is above eight percent. Second half 2012 should have a stronger growth compared to first half. The central government’s policy is beginning to shift from fighting inflation to supporting growth. We think the key in the second half of the year is for the government to shift focus from investments to growth consumptions. So, in the second half of the year, we expect a lot more policies to support individual consumption, household income growth, and also services. "



Editor:Zhang Rui |Source: CNTV.CN

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